Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Philip Hammond's spending review rebellion may be more loyal than it looks

When Freeborn John Lilburne, the Leveller, appeared before the Star Chamber in 1637, he refused to do as they asked. He would not take the oath or answer questions, and as a result he was fined £500, whipped, humiliated in a pillory and thrown in jail.

Given that history, it is not hard to see why George Osborne has chosen to refound the Star Chamber to deal with those in the Cabinet who are refusing to sign up to the cuts needed for his spending review. A number of ministers must be hoping the pillory, at least, has been decommissioned since Lilburne's day.

The psychology is simple. Instead of being pelted by the London mob, any modern day John Lilburnes who won't play along are set to face humiliation in front of their peers. Eric Pickles, Danny Alexander and Oliver Letwin will be sat alongside the Chancellor flinging the metaphorical rotten turnips.

But the politics is rather more complex than it appears.
The precise positions of several of the National Union of Ministers representatives who have yet to settle their budgets are not known - most notably that of Theresa May at the Home Office. It is Philip Hammond who is widely touted as posing the most difficulty.

Previously viewed as a quiet, competent sort, the Defence Secretary has proved his competence beyond doubt - but torn off the quiet label. In the last few weeks alone, he has stuck his neck out on same sex marriage and followed Michael Gove into public mulling of whether Britain might be right to leave the EU. Add that to his outspokenness over Lords Reform, and his neck has emerged far enough that, in Lilburne's day, it might have been cut off. Judging from some of the (anonymous) rhetoric coming out of Number 10, there's an outside chance that could still happen.

The general narrative is that his position, that welfare should take more cuts to protect defence, puts him at loggerheads with George Osborne and many of his colleagues. But look beneath the surface and that isn't necessarily the case.

As has happened so often with the Coalition, events are being assessed as though this was a normal government, in which the Chancellor has full control of which departments cut what. Osborne would very much like to have such power, but he doesn't. Thanks to the Quad system, the Liberal Democrats are able to veto cuts they don't like.

And they do so - in this instance, they have rejected the idea of further cuts at DWP. Osborne, and even IDS himself, are in favour of finding more savings from the welfare budget in order to reduce the burden elsewhere. In short, this is a very odd Star Chamber - the Chancellor will be sitting in judgement over Philip Hammond, even though the basic principles of their personal spending preferences are pretty close together.

So Hammond's rebellion against the Treasury's authority is far less of a rebellion than it first appears, or at least it may be a rebellion against our coalition partners rather than the Chancellor. By the same token, Nick Clegg is likely to take it far more personally than most assume, as it is a direct, public snub to his insistence on protecting DWP spending from further cuts.

This is yet another wobble in the wheels of the coalition. To maintain the authority of the Quad, Osborne will have to bring Hammond before the Star Chamber if he continues to dig his heels in. But as the judge's personal position is not so far from that of the accused, his punishment may be somewhat less severe than that faced by Freeborn John.
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Thursday, May 16, 2013

Discipline! Smell the Rebellion at ‘Matilda’ (Video)

“Matilda,” the hit Broadway musical based on Roald Dahl’s book, received 12 Tony Award nominations, including Best Musical.

Tim Minchin is nominated for Best Original Score, and the show’s character is largely defined by his angular score and dense, dark lyrics. To help fans absorb the words to the number “The Smell of Rebellion,” for example, there’s a new video performed by actor Bertie Carvel, nominated for Best Actor for his performance as the scary headmistress Agatha Trunchbull.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Al Qaeda Declares Stake in Syrian Rebellion

Al Qaeda’s branch in Iraq said it has merged with a Syrian rebel extremist faction, in a push by the terrorist organization to exert more influence on the Syrian rebellion and its outcome.

The declaration reflects cross-border coordination between al Qaeda in Iraq and Syria’s Jabhat al Nusra, or the al Nusra Front, a force with growing battlefield clout that has been a target of U.S. efforts to isolate rebel extremists in Syria. The two groups are already closely linked; when the U.S. designated the Syrian group as a terrorist organization in December, it described al Nusra as an alias for the Iraqi group.

The announcement from Iraq followed a statement on Sunday by al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri calling on Syrian rebels to direct their fight at establishing a “jihadist Islamic state” there as they seek to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad.

The move is likely to deepen a schism within the Syrian rebel movement between Islamist extremists who shun Western involvement and more moderate fighters trying to work with the political opposition and Western powers. Many of these rebels say the longer the civil war drags on, the easier it will be for al Qaeda in Iraq to influence the fight.

The U.S. has stepped up efforts with Arab partners in the region, and Syrian rebels, to counter the influence of al Nusra. In Iraq, the Central Intelligence Agency has ramped up support to elite Iraqi antiterrorism units to better fight al Qaeda affiliates, The Wall Street Journal reported in March.

Secretary of State John Kerry on Tuesday hinted that additional U.S. steps to help moderate rebels were in the works. Mr. Kerry is due to meet the Syrian Opposition Coalition’s leadership in London on Wednesday.

In a 21-minute audio clip posted on militant websites late Monday, al Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi said his group was providing half of its budget to the conflict in Syria and that al Nusra—whose leaders are generally unknown—won’t have a separate leader.

He outlined how al Qaeda in Iraq, officially called the Islamic State of Iraq, had cells in Syria that were reinforced with fighters from Iraq who helped draw “plans and policies” for the Syrian branch.

Mr. Baghdadi said the merged group would now be known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham. Sham denotes a historic and Islamic name for Syria and the surrounding region.

“It is time to announce to the Levantine [Syrian] people and the whole world that Jabhat al Nusra is merely an extension and part of the Islamic State of Iraq,” Mr. Baghdadi said.

He warned Syrians against swapping “the injustice of dictatorship” for “the injustice of democracy that the people of Iraq, Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya have tried before you.”

The authenticity of the clip couldn’t be confirmed, but it was widely posted on militant websites. Websites linked to Jabhat al Nusra confirmed the merger announcement on Tuesday, but the group didn’t post independent confirmation.

Iraqi officials said al Qaeda in Iraq, which shares a decade-old relationship with Syrian jihadists, has been empowered by the Syrian war and has been feeding off the military strength of al Nusra.

“This signals the beginning of a new phase of operations of these armed groups which depends on the exchange of experiences,” said Mowaffak al Rubaie, former Iraqi national security adviser. He saw the announcement of a merger as an attempt to rile up Sunnis in Iraq by convincing them they were fighting the same cause as Syria’s rebels, against Shiite domination.

In Syria, Islamist rebels said the announcement marked what has been happening on the ground for months. One aim of formally uniting the groups is to block other Sunni rebel groups from dominating the fight in Syria or “being the voice of Sunnis in the region,” said a Syrian activist.

Terrorism experts described the announcement as a sign of confidence. “If this means they’re going to cooperate even more, it’s almost like a multiplication of the threat posed by each,” said Bruce Riedel, a counterterrorism expert at the Brookings Institution. “They bring a lot of capabilities together, and they extend the reach of al Qaeda across the entire Fertile Crescent, from the Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf.”

Al Nusra first emerged as a shadowy group claiming car bombings in Damascus and Aleppo, Syria’s largest cities, in early 2012. Rebels and U.S. officials say its core fighters are Syrians who fought in the Iraqi insurgency against Western-led coalition forces, and are now using their expertise and ties to al Qaeda in Iraq at home against the Assad regime.

Over the past year, al Nusra has attracted hundreds of foreign fighters from the Middle East and central Asia, who have helped the group and its affiliated fighters score every major opposition battlefield gain in recent months.

In northern and eastern Syria, where rebels control territory, the group, designated a terrorist organization by the U.S., is also engaging in the battle for hearts and minds. In Aleppo, al Nusra controls the provision of local services, such as water supply and bread distribution, according to rebels and local residents.

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

SEC Tournament Champions: A Four Factors Review

In 196 possessions over 3 tournament games, the Rebels committed just 28 TOs and got to the FT line 64 times. Opponents committed 39 TOs and attempted just 42 FTs. Those two factors, more than anything else, have been keys to the Rebels’ success on the offensive end this season, and helped lead the Rebels to their first SEC Tourney title in 32 long years.

Perhaps even more than those factors though, credit a resurgent effort on the defensive end. The Rebels allowed conference opponents to shoot at a 49.9% eFG% clip for the 18-game conference season, but really got after it in Nashville. There was a renewed passion on that side of the court that translated in to 22 steals over the 3 games, which led to transition points.

I’ll pull together a Four Factors Preview for the Badgers for tomorrow. Spoiler alert, there are a lot of similarities between Wisconsin and Florida as far as tempo and styles of play, but I'll get into more detail later.

Monday, February 18, 2013

This Guy Wants What Job??

Ken Cuccinelli’s book, The Last Line of Defense, is the presumptive Republican nominee’s opening salvo in his quest to become Governor of the Old Dominion. It is a strange politico manifesto for a campaign. Ken refrains from writing about topics near and dear to his heart such as trans-vaginal inspections and gay bashing, but neither does he address any of the Commonwealth’s problems such as road congestion, K-12 school performance and spending, competition between coal and the increase of shale derived natural gas, and how the state will be affected by the sure to come large defense cuts. Instead, Cuccinelli presents himself as a knight in defense of Virginia against its biggest threat, not international terrorism or cheap Chinese imports, but the government of the United States of America, especially the Affordable Health Care Act and the Environmental Protection Agency.

In tackling complex issues such as health care and the envirment one would expect a tome full of scientific, economic,  and political analysis appropriately footnoted and explained to support his arguments. Ken opines on all these issues without a footnote, endnote or bibliography. The Cuccinelli Doctrine of research states “If Ken says it, it must be true”.

The tone of the work is set literally within the first few pages. On the second page he states: “I call the biggest set of lawbreakers in America the Obama administration.” Attempts to criminalize the political opposition is a tactic often practiced by dictatorships of the Right or Left. As a self-proclaimed defender of the Constitution,  Cuccincelli must know that the Constitution provides impeachment in the case of a President who breaks the law. If Ken is correct why haven’t the Republicans in the House of Representatives voted articles of impeachment against Obama. Wild and inflammatory accusations such as this often leads to unpleasant political outcomes.

Cuccinelli often refers to the Declaration of Independence as giving rights.  As every high school student who has labored through a Government class knows, it does not. The Declaration is a statement of the Enlightment idea of natural rights and then argues that, as George III has broken these rules, the colonists have a right to revolt. I am surprised that the top legal official of the state would make such an error.

Cuccinelli is obsessed with his critics and his vile condemnations go well beyond acceptable political discourse. He references an article written by Thomas Friedman of the New York Times as a glowing endorsement of one party rule in Communist China. In a revival of the McCarthism of the 1950′s. the Attorney General claims that Friedman praised Chinese Communism by writing:

“One party autocracy certainly has its drawbacks, but when it is led by a reasonably enlightened group as China is today, it can have great advantages.”

Thanks to the old teacher trick of Googling a suspicious passage, I was able to find the article that caught the General’s fancy. Needless to say,  Cuccinelli did not quote the content accurately and simply lied about its intent.

The article to which the “Cooch”refers was published on September 9,2009 in the New York Times.  Far from being the “longing” for a Chinese Communist-style government as Ken states in his book , it is a plea for more participation by the oppostion  party in the debate on two important issues.  Friedman states:

“One party democracy is worse. The fact is on both energy/climate and health care legislation only the Democrats are really playing. With few notable exceptions, the Republican Party is standing, with arms folded, saying “No”

What’s the source for your defilement of Mr. Freidman’s character,  Mr. Attorney General??

Cuccinelli,who writes that the only reason for a social safety net is to make citizens dependent on government,  thus assuring the reelection of certain politicians. Continuing this line of logic,  he states that several popular sections of the Affordable Health Care Act came into force simply to placate the electorate. Ken states that one of these was a provision preventing private insurers from discriminating against those with pre-existing conditions.  He states that this is a good way to put private sector insurance companies out of business.

Ken has told another whooper.  The Act provided for a Federal program for those with pre-existing conditions for those who had been without insurance for 6 months.  The requirement that does away with discrimination against those with pre-existing conditions takes effect in January 2014 when the pool is expanded to include everyone.  Companies will be able to discriminate on the basis of age.

Cuccinelli believes that the Health Act is a plan by the Administration to bankrupt private insurance companies so that the government can gain total control of 17% of the GDP.  Apparently those closet-Communists on Wall Street fail to agree:  stock markets are mechanisms to present-value future earnings.  Wellpoint, the parent of Richmond-based Anthem, traded as high as $75 per share in 2008 and closed at $62.70 on Friday, February 15th while United Health which was in the mid-$30′s in 2008  ended that day at $57.32.  I guess the Marist-Leninist traders on the NYSE have another idea about Obama’s plans.

Cuccinelli’s battles with the EPA are a further demonstration over science and economics.  He conveniently forgets to mention his suit against a climate-change scientist at UVA.  In the Attorney General’s world, the right of free speech must yield to ideology.  The Attorney General must have stopped at the Preamble because that is in the First Amendment.

Mr. Cuccinelli is worried about his reputation.  He is offended that some in the press call him a proponent of nullification, but he is simply bubbly in his praise of Virginia’s Health Care Freedom Act.  A quick glance at Bob Marshall’s website indicates that “no Law shall interfere with the right to purchase … or to decline to contract” for health care.  So the Supreme Court says that the Affordable Care and the individual mandate are Constitutional  but in Virginia the State Government legislates that it is legal to avoid the law and its penalties.  Maybe in his next book Ken will give us a new definition of selective nullification.

Cuccinelli’s book confirms that he is unfit to serve in elected office.  He is a practitioner of politics at its lowest level of integrity. His political ancestors include John C. Calhoun, Joseph MacCarthy, and J. Lindsey Almond.  Hopefully, the Republicans will have a second look and nominate a true Conservative grounded in ethics and in touch with reality.

Monday, January 28, 2013

Nigeria: Rebellion in the House of God

The opposition from some Catholic priests in Mbaise, Imo State, following the appointment of a priest from Awka Catholic Diocese, Rev Monsignor Peter Okpaleke, by Pope Benedict XVI as the bishop-elect of Ahiara (Mbaise) Diocese has indeed jolted the Church.

Eight priests from Mbaise land, known to habour the largest concentration of Catholics in Nigeria, had, on January 12, staged a peaceful demonstration in the area to drive home their opposition to the appointment of the Anambra State -born priest as the Bishop of Ahiara Diocese.

Incidentally, one of the books authored by Monsignor Okpaleke is entitled, "Conflict prevention, management and resolution in the Church", and observers are optimistic that, with his experience in this area, the opposition he is facing from those who will constitute his flock in Mbaise would be resolved amicably.

In Mbaise, it is common to find two or more children of the same parents as Catholic priests and many of them are either carrying out their evangelization in many parts of the world, or are teaching in tertiary educational institutions. Indeed, they have the highest number of Catholic priests in Nigeria.

Since the demise of the late Bishop Chikwe of Ahiara Diocese some years ago, the position had remained vacant and many indigenous priests from the area have been jostling to fill the vacancy. In the past two years, Reverend Monsignor Theophilous Nwalor has been overseeing the diocese and some even thought he was going to be elevated. However, they were disappointed when the Holy Father, Pope Benedict XVI, in December, last year, announced the appointment of the Awka -based priest, Okpaleke, as the bishop-elect of Ahiara Diocese.

It was shortly after the appointment that some Mbaise priests began to meet to deliberate on the development which later culminated in the demonstration, led by eight priests from the diocese, expressing their opposition to the appointment.

While they argued that they had nothing against the person of Okpaleke to be made a bishop, they insisted that they have credible priests from Mbaise to be elevated to that position, especially in these days of indegenization of the church.

They also argued that despite the high quality priests produced by Mbaise Diocese, none had been made a bishop in any diocese in Anambra State.